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30. April 2009 by admin.
By Gary Lamphier, The Edmonton Journal
China is the world’s biggest — and fastest growing — source of carbon emissions, accounting for nearly a quarter of the global total.
In 2007, China’s emissions — mainly from cheap, coal-fired power plants, which generate almost 80 per cent of the nation’s energy supplies — grew by about eight per cent.
That’s roughly twice the rate of growth in oft-demonized Canada, whose carbon emissions account for two per cent of the world total.
Of course, China has roughly 40 times Canada’s population, so its emissions are still low, in per capita terms. But that may change.
If the European Union reduces its emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, as it hopes, and China’s emissions continue to rise at current rates, its per capita emissions will be twice those of the EU by 2020, according to one recent report.
That’s just one side of the story. Here’s another. Even as its emissions soar, China is moving aggressively to become the global leader in low-carbon technologies. In fact, it is already spending more on renewable energy technologies — including wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and electric-powered vehicles — than virtually every other nation on earth.
Roughly 40 per cent of China’s recent $586-billion US economic stimulus package — about $221 billion over two years — was allocated toward various green investments, according to a recent report by Hong Kong-based HSBC Global Research. Although that figure has been tweaked since, China’s commitment to clean energy dwarfs the $112 billion worth of similar initiatives contained in the $787-billion stimulus bill recently approved by the U.S. Congress.
If measured as a share of GDP, the spread is even wider. China is outspending the U.S. on clean energy by a ratio of six-to-one, according to a report by the Center for American Progress, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy think-tank.
In part, that’s a reflection of starkly different economic realities.
While the U.S. economy shrank by more than six per cent in each of the past two quarters, China’s economy continues to grow — albeit at a slower pace than the torrid, double-digit levels of recent years.
Similarly, while Europe and the U.S. face massive federal debts, deficits, broken banking systems, and highly leveraged consumers, China boasts nearly $2 trillion US of cash reserves, and a nation of debt-averse citizens.
The resulting shift of economic power and influence away from the U.S. and Europe, and toward China, is becoming more apparent every day. And make no mistake, this power shift also extends to the brave new world of green energy.
China may be dirty today, in terms of its huge and growing carbon emissions, but it aims to be the top dog when all the smoke clears, and the age of fossil fuels starts its long decline.
While U.S. President Barack Obama talks bravely about rebuilding the U.S. economy, and creating five million new green energy jobs over the next 10 years, the U.S. is already well behind the curve. America has already forfeited the crucial “first mover” advantage to China, in many key areas.
Of the world’s top 30 players in solar energy, wind energy, and advanced battery technology, only six are based in the U.S. Most are based in countries like China, Germany, Spain or Denmark. It’s hard to see how the U.S. can rebuild its manufacturing sector on that basis.
Perhaps that’s partly why American venture capitalists are losing their enthusiasm for clean energy startups. In the first quarter of 2009, VC investments in this sector fell by nearly 90 per cent in the U.S., versus a year earlier.
“China is already the leading renewable energy producer in the world in terms of installed generating capacity, with the largest hydro-electric fleet, and fifth-largest wind power fleet in the world,” says a recent report by The Climate Group, a non-profit enviro research group supported by dozens of major international companies, foundations and green lobby groups.
“China ranked second for the absolute dollar amount invested in renewable energy in 2007, at approximately $12 billion, trailing the leader, Germany, which invested $14 billion,” it adds.
Based on China’s bold renewable energy goals — it plans to nearly double the share of renewable energy it uses by 2020, to 15 per cent — it’s likely not in second place any longer. Analysts figure China will spend nearly $400 billion through 2020, or $33 billion a year, to reach its target.
Only the U.S. could match that level of spending. And now that Washington faces years of massive deficits, it won’t be easy.
In the auto sector, it’s a similar story. While the North American auto industry endures its worst sales slump in decades, auto sales in China are expected to grow by close to 10 per cent this year.
By 2015, forecasters say China could supplant the U.S. as the world’s biggest new vehicle market. Longer term, the Asian Development Bank projects the total on-road vehicle fleet in China will hit 400 million units by 2035, triple the current level.
Meanwhile, China is working hard to secure the valuable “first mover” advantage in the neophyte electric car market.
By the end of 2009, one of China’s leading automakers — BYD Auto, backed by U.S. investment tycoon Warren Buffett — aims to launch its new E6 fully electric car.
BYD’s new model will employ a new iron-phosphate battery that can reportedly be recharged more than 2,000 times, powering a car for over 600,000 miles.
It’s designed to travel up to 400 kilometres on a single charge, or up to half that distance on shorter,
10-minute charges at dedicated, high-voltage recharging stations (which have yet to be built).
The new entry from BYD (which stands for Build Your Dreams) is just one of several new electric cars due to be launched soon, by such auto makers as Ford, General Motors, BMW and Toyota.
GM’s widely-anticipated new entry, the Volt, is expected to be launched next year. It will reportedly have an electric-only range of 65 kilometres. A gas engine will kick in once its battery is drained.
A lot can change in a year, of course. But China is now flexing its muscles in a way that only one country — the U.S. — used to do. It will be fascinating to see how this battle plays out.
glamphier@thejournal.canwest.com
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